Iran at the Crossroads, by Amin Saikal. Wiley $28.95.
Reviewer: Bruce Haigh
This is a book we have been waiting to see in Australia for some time. Whilst it does not specifically address Australian policy makers it applies to them.
Amin Saikal unravels the tangled complexities of Iranian domestic politics from the spectacular downfall of the superficial American backed Shah through the Iranian Revolution, the formation of an Islamic State under the grip of the messianic Ayatollah Khomeini, the mercurial Mahmoud Ahmadjinejad to the current pragmatic President, Hassan Rouhani.
Against this background he examines Iran's past difficult relations with the US and its neighbours and explores Iran's current standing in the region and beyond. He explores positive moves to some more recent rapprochement with the US.
Saikal gently pushes the argument, with which I agree, that now is the time for the US, its Allies and Europe to increase their dialogue and ties to Iraq. He argues the US and Israeli influence in the Middle East is declining at a time when Iranian influence is increasing.
The US and Europe are faced with a nasty and ruthless terrorist organisation in the form of IS, a messy civil war in Syria and the Arab Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has shown itself to be a mendacious and less than reliable ally. Israel has proved powerless in shaping outcomes in Syria and curbing IS.
He argues that Iran has influence in Afghanistan, in Lebanon, through Hezbollah, and in Iraq, and has demonstrated that it is prepared to use that influence in ways that support US and Western interests.
Internally Iran has swayed between various entrenched factions led by the conservative, reactionary and inward looking, 'jihadi' faction and the more moderate, outgoing and reforming, 'ijtihadi'. The later is ascendant under Rouhani. Saikal argues that now is the time to engage and support the moderates whilst they are influential.
He notes that the Russians, Chinese and Indians are building strong trading relationships. The signing of an agreement on Iran's nuclear program in 1914, led to the lifting of some sanctions and an extended deadline for 'political agreement'; all of which augers well for developing closer ties, particularly with trade.
Saikal does not argue the case for Australia to show more independence in putting more depth into the relationship, but it is implied.
This is an important and well researched book which demystifies a key and important player in the Middle East. It is a must read for students, businessmen and women, travellers, public servants and politicians.
Bruce Haigh is a retired diplomat who worked in Saudi Arabia and Iran in the 1980s.
