Australia's defence spending: why is our military being bolstered now?

Any one of them would have been momentous in normal times - but we are not in normal times.

Lenin said: "There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen."

We are living in one of those whirlwind periods.

That's not the way Scott Morrison phrases it.

No ally of the United States would want to risk upsetting President Trump by casting doubt on American reliability.

But experts in foreign policy don't have the same need for nicety. "The high-level political credibility of US security assurances to allies is increasingly in doubt," according to Professor Andrew O'Neil of Griffith University.

"Military to military and intelligence cooperation in US alliances remains strong but serious doubts have emerged about the long-term commitment of Washington to defend its allies in Asia," he said.

That doesn't mean the alliance with the United States is over - just that other alliances need to be bolstered as an insurance policy.

It also increases the need for self-reliance.

Don't bank on it. It's true his opinion poll ratings are down and contender Joe Biden is ahead - but so was Hillary Clinton at this stage in 2016. There's a long way to go.

Mr Trump has also changed the politics of his country - and perhaps of the world. Antagonism is rising.

It is not clear that a President Biden would revert to the old order. American attitudes to trade and engagement with foreign countries - even friendly ones - may not go back to the previous idea of the United States as the leader of a group of democratic countries, including Australia.

"America First" may seem even more attractive to Americans as the coronavirus ravages the country. It seems likely that unemployment will mount and social discord will get more intense. And Mr Trump may win.

It wouldn't. The military might of the People's Liberation Army dwarfs that of the Australian Defence Force. China has nuclear weapons capable of striking Australian cities. The PLA has about two million trained troops.

But Chinese military spending is still only about a quarter of that of the United States. And China's technological abilities remain inferior.

But it's catching up.

The aim of having a strong defence is to deter. It is to make the cost of aggression too high.

Professor Rory Medcalf, the head of the ANU's National Security College, told this paper that weaker countries can fight stronger countries with a view to getting a negotiation or to hold off defeat while allies are sought.

China is increasingly active in waters around Australia so Australia might need resources to "stare down a potential adversary".

China is also risk averse. It can be deterred. It didn't, for example, escalate its recent confrontation with India.

Mr Morrison's plan gives money to all three services: navy, air force and army. The aim is to increase options. Professor John Blaxland of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the ANU said the new policy was "intended to complicate the plans of any adversary seeking to cause us harm.

"Diversifying our capabilities is key to avoiding being limited by a shortage of force options."

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That may well be true - but China is not going away.

It is throwing its increasing weight around more and more, from the arrest of two Canadian citizens to building islands in international waters and turning them into military bases. It has gotten tough in Hong Kong in the last few days in the knowledge that retaliation, if any, is bearable. China is becoming the big kid who can throw his or her weight around.

"China has built its robust, lethal and rapidly expanding military capability, structured to confront its very own trading partners," according to Professor Blaxland.

Military spending is expensive and it takes money from other needs - and in a time of likely recession. And the new world order is not yet settled. There are very tough decisions on the way, some of them involving high economic and human cost.

"Many US allies including Australia are enmeshed in China's economy, through intimate trading and investment relations," Professor Andrew O'Neil said. The big question is what course the United States chooses to take. Will it retreat from alliances? Will it ditch is old faithful allies in pursuit of a trade deal with China?

Either way, the days when Australia was a far away country that could assume it was insulated from big power military politics have gone. The Australian military is being strengthened. Other countries are doing the same, from Germany to Japan. Welcome to a dangerous world.