Too much rain means berry lovers might again be left feeling blue at the checkout.
The region surrounding the NSW mid-north coast town of Coffs Harbour delivers the vast majority of Australia's summer blueberry production, but conditions have been less than ideal for local farmer Aman Lehl over the past two years.
Blueberry farms across the region reported a 60 to 70 per cent reduction in crops in 2021, he says.
"This weather we've been having for the last 12 to 18 months has been very unseasonal, probably not something we can remember in living memory," Mr Lehl tells AAP.
"There are farmers on a knife's edge at the moment. Another year of this weather could certainly push some growers over that edge."
Mr Lehl's father started growing blueberries on their 90-hectare Corindi farm, an hour north of Coffs Harbour, more than 25 years ago.
The farm has since expanded to grow raspberries, blackberries and macadamias.
Over the past two years, La Nina conditions brought above-average rainfall to the eastern states of Australia, leading to major flooding in areas including northern NSW and southeast Queensland.
The persistent rains resulted in fungal diseases that stripped leaves from Mr Lehl's plants, preventing them producing berries and costing him millions of dollars.
"It's the disease pressure that comes with the bad weather. You can handle any normal amount of rain, but with 70 to 80 per cent of days where the sun does not come out, it's just too much," he says.
Last month, the Bureau of Meteorology declared a third consecutive La Nina would impact northern and eastern Australia.
A La Nina event occurs when strong winds from the Pacific Ocean, strengthened by cooler waters off South America, blow warm water towards northern Australia, evaporating to form rain clouds.
The weather pattern increases the chance of seasonal rains, with the bureau predicting the event could peak in spring before returning to neutral conditions in early 2023.
Shayne McGregor, a climate researcher from Monash University, predicts a milder La Nina season compared to previous years.
"It's right on the borderline of what the bureau threshold would say is a (La Nina) event," he tells AAP.
But Dr McGregor warns there could still be a chance of heavy rainfalls across a small number of days.
National Farmers' Federation president Fiona Simson says La Nina is a double-edged sword for farmers across Australia, offering some a boost in production while spelling trouble for others.
"Any extreme weather events that erode crop quality and cause damage not only impact farmers but ultimately what people pay at the supermarket," she says.
Heading into a new season, Mr Lehl is concerned there won't be time for his battered plants to recover from last year's devastation.
"As it warms up, that's when the plants have an opportunity to grow and rebuild their canopies. If we start getting that weather during that period, it will impact our regrowth," he says.
"Most growers will struggle even to cut a profit this year. Most will be at a loss, they won't even cover their input costs this season."
Despite the threat of another bout of rain, Berries Australia boss Rachel MacKenzie says consumers aren't likely to see sky-high blueberry prices unless there is a catastrophic weather event.
"Although it's impossible to predict, we're not going to get the rock-bottom prices that we had a few years ago, but I don't think they're going to go out of control either," she says.
With blueberry production occurring year-round in all jurisdictions except the Northern Territory, Ms MacKenzie says the historical dependence on the Coffs Harbour region has lessened to a degree.
Farmers like Mr Lehl are left to wait and see.
"You try to get through each bad year as a farmer. You put some money away to get through these years but when you hear about the third year in a row, it's pretty disheartening," he says.
"There's no point stressing. It's out of our hands so we're just along for the ride."
Australian Associated Press
